TheHeat waves will be three to ten times more frequent in 2100 than they are today in the United States, Western Europe, China and Japan, regardless of efforts to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, according to the study published Thursday. Journal of Earth and Environmental Communications.
As part of the Paris climate agreement signed at COP 21 in 2015, participating countries agreed to stick to this limit, hoping to keep the rise below two degrees Celsius.
To achieve this goal, each country has submitted its own Climate Action Plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the study authors fear that these efforts may not be enough to bring the temperature down.
“Record heat waves in recent summer will become more frequent in regions such as North America and Europe,” said study senior author Lucas Vargas Zeptillo, a Harvard researcher.
The study relied on indicators, taking into account a combination of temperature and air humidity, which measures the effect of heat on the human body.
The scientists said they used a probability-based method to calculate a series of future scenarios, combining historical data with population projections, economic growth and carbon concentration.
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