December 3, 2022

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Italy – Elections: exit polls show a clear victory for the right

Polls closed Italia 23:00 local time (midnight Greece), the first Polls They come now to confirm all those expectations that the Italian U-45 right front wanted Georgia Melonito make clear progress.

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According to opinion polls, the percentages of parties are as follows:

Italy brothersGeorgia Meloni: 22% to 26%

leagueMatteo Salvini: 8.5% to 12.5%

Italy opportunitySilvio Berlusconi: 6% to 8%

Five star movementGiuseppe Conte: from 13.5% to 17.5%

Democratic Party Enrico Letta: 17% to 21%

Live in Italy and workMatthew Renzi And the Carlo Calenda: 6.5% to 8.5%

More of EuropeEmma Bonino: 2.5% to 4.5%

The Alliance of Environmentalists and the Italian LeftAngelo Bonelli And the Nicolas Fratoiani: 3% to 5%

Citizens’ ChoiceLuigi Di Maio: 0% to 2%

The new power relations

In other words, the Italian right-wing and far-right factions (Italy brothersAnd the leagueAnd the Italy opportunity) seems to dominate the pool over 40%.

On the other hand, the “progressive” front of most centrist political forces (Democratic Party, More Europe, Alliance of Environmentalists and Italian Left, Citizen’s Choice) appears in second place, with less than 30%.

Matarella’s next steps and the formation of the government

When the official results are announced, most likely on Monday, the ball will be in the President of the Republic’s court, Sergio Mattarellawhich, depending on the outcome of the elections, will have to give the mandate to form a government to the next Prime Minister who, as everything indicates, will be a woman for the first time in Italian history: Georgia Meloni.

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Mattarella will choose as prime minister the leader most likely to secure Parliament’s support in a vote of confidence. They may need to pass several weeks Until the scene is fully clarified with the new government coalition. Salvini himself had said that it could take about five weeks before a government was formed.

It is expected that the vote counting will be completed within the next 24 hours, but the result (the right-right victory) is clear.

What is, on the other hand, unclear, for the time being at least, and which is expected to become clear in the coming days and weeks, is the “climate” in which the upcoming new coalition of Italian right-wing parties will become an unprecedented government. Because it is the first since World War II in which a party of neo-fascist origins participates – and leads – as in this case Italy brothersFdI For Georgia Meloni, 45 years old.

According to what Alessandra Miliccio wrote in Bloomberg a few days ago, the new Italian government will have a file Calvary on the economic front. According to the Financial Times, a lot will depend on that The person who will take over the Ministry of Finance (often in the past it was technocratic) as well as from developments on the energy crisis front.

“The first difficult decision will be the formation of the new government that will also indicate its political intentions,” economist Francesco Papandia told Key and Anastasia Tsoga, while at the same time there are rumors that Meloni wants to keep the Finance Ministry. Close associate of Mario Draghi, Daniel Franco.

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45 years Georgia Meloniwhose faction came first in the elections by increasing the percentage to her, from 4.4% in 2018, in more than 22% today (Always according to polls), she was already appointed as the first female prime minister Italiaas head of a coalition of right-wing parties that have a lot in common but also have differences.

Together in Rome – apart from Brussels

It is worth noting that the three parties now expected to form a right-wing government in Italy each belong to a different political group in the European Parliament: the Meloni Brothers in Italy belong to a group European conservatives and reformers (ECR) – The Salvini League belongs to the group identity and democracy (Identification card) – And Berlusconi belongs in its ranks European People’s Party (EPP). In other words, their positions on European issues differ somewhat, while their upcoming governmental partnership raises questions and concerns about the position they will take on a number of issues towards Brussels.

Three questions for the future

More specifically, in light of Meloni’s victory, at least three questions arise about the position that Italy – the third largest economy in the eurozone – will take at the European level in the near future:

  • Will it get closer to its (European skeptic) governments? Hungary Which PolandAnd forming with them a common “unruly” front against Brussels?
  • Will he try to renegotiate the terms (see economic reforms, opening closed professions, etc.) under which Italy, a country with a large economy (the third largest in the eurozone) and with huge debt, received financial support from the European Union to recover from the pandemic?
  • Will it encourage a change of attitude toward Russia and the war in Ukraine?
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However, Meloni herself declared before the elections that she did not intend to derail Italy’s finances, nor drag Italy to Putin’s side by directly or indirectly supporting Russia against the background of the war in Ukraine.

Gentlemen. However, Salvini and Berlusconi displayed different temperaments, while Salvini was on all fronts (economy, Ukrainian), and 86-year-old Berlusconi was primarily Ukrainian.

One possibility is that Giorgia Meloni takes a pragmatic approach to Brussels and a more conservative nationalist approach within Italian borders.

It must be remembered that we are talking about a politician who, among other things, took a position in the past against abortion but also in favor of the naval blockade of North Africa (so that illegal immigrants could not reach the shores of Italy).

However, as Professor Alberto Alemanno has pointed out to “K” and Anastasia Tsuga, the greatest danger for a far-right government in Italy, in his own estimation, is not a slide toward a fascist dictatorship but the possible deterioration of Italy’s relations with the European Union.

European officials (Ursula von der Leyen and others) made no secret of their concern.

Anyway, now the future is erased … unknown and it is clear that everything will be judged by the outcome.

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