February 6, 2023

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Just before the national elections

A new poll has recorded much broader social discontent, at around 2/3 of the electorate, but the government now appears united.

Prorata’s November pulse captures widespread social discontent, the size of which corresponds to 2/3 of the electorate. A society that often feels frustrated and angry has a negative assessment of its economic situation, while precisely at the top of the list of problems it faces for about a year now.

However, this is one side of the coin, if one uses tools that analyze the interactions of party competition, the government actually resists the pressure, with the remaining roughly 1/3 enjoying confidence. Voters, while 2/3 of voters in the anti-government crowd are divided between alternative opposition solutions or are not convinced by them.

In this sense, the government, despite its recent considerable deterioration, continues to be the most electorally important part of society and convinces itself that it is capable of governing and a relatively reliable political force.

This is the main reason why it continues and maintains a 5% poll safety distance from SYRIZA-PS, while the election results of other opposition parties do not register significant changes in influence. This picture of the stagnation of parties’ electoral influence is clearly related to satisfaction (or not) with their parliamentary work: while satisfaction with the work of the government is found at 36%, it is related to that of the opposition. Syriza-B. S. 22% and other opposition parties (PASOK-KIN.ALL., KKE, MeRA25 and Hellenic Solution) less than 18%.

In the face-off between Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Alexis Tsipras, the prime minister is seen as more effective in solving important problems and delivering on what he says and promises, but is also seen as capable of managing the country’s finances. More integrity in the financial management of the state without compromising interests but better listening to the problems of the society.

The prime minister’s improvement in the “anti-establishment” index is notable (and explainable), as he is now considered “out of step with established interests” at 28% (compared to 25% in the previous measure), approaching Alexis Tsipras. Unique code. Summarizing the above findings to a large extent, Kyriakos Mitsotakis (41%) outperformed the official opposition leader (34%) in the confidence index for the position of prime minister.

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The above figures are largely consistent with the relative trust shown by voters in the NT. and SYRIZA-B.S. To manage various issues: Largest part relies on ND. in Economic Management, Foreign Policy Affairs and Natural Disaster Management, SYRIZA-B.S. In safeguarding democracy, on salary and pension issues but also on dealing with corruption and transparency issues. However, the primacy of “neither party” in dealing with issues like corruption and transparency and natural disaster management is a sign of potentially dangerous pregnancies for the political system.

Partnerships

However, according to Pulse’s findings, what are the preferred scenarios of government cooperation? The largest part (62%) is divided into various (more or less) conditions for the formation of a cooperative government, but not without conditions. Voters of N.D. They are divided between the scenario of calling for new elections and the scenario of a joint government with PASOK-KIN.ALL. On the other hand, the voters of SYRIZA-PS. They presented different scenarios of progressive governance like the SYRIZA-B.S. and PASOK-KIN.ALL. With (or without) the participation of MeRA25, the voters of PASOK-KIN.ALL have repeatedly rejected the option of holding elections. They are divided between various cooperation scenarios (preferring a coalition government with the ND) and the announcement of fresh elections.

In conclusion, this is the doggedly recorded supremacy of the NT. Is the ruling party certain to win the public opinion polls? No one can say for sure. The government now believes that it is a relatively more reliable political force that can guarantee basic stability in an unstable world, giving a large part of the electorate the feeling that it has the political will when necessary to transcend the “left-right” divide. . “, aligning with “common sense”. However, the narrative he weaves in an unusual way is blind and resembles a catenaccio unable to develop new dynamics.

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On the other hand, for the first time since the start of the current election cycle, the distance between N.D. and SYRIZA-B.S. 3% of the annoyance index is found from the assumption of government power, 46% are more annoyed if the official opposition party wins the election and 43% if the ND wins. This particular finding shows that just before the last turn, SYRIZA-PS’s poll was the primary factor in the stagnation. In recent years, the “anti-Syriza” trend has weakened, releasing a certain momentum that, if exploited, could demand a decisive change in the balance of power between the two major parties. The time is near.


Research Id

PRORATA SA is a company for public opinion research and communication applications (registration number ESR: 56). Research Client: Journal of the Editors. Quantitative research with online completion of a structured questionnaire (CAWI). Sample Characteristics: People over 17 years of age with Internet access. Geographical coverage: Total territory. Sample size: 1,905 people. Judgment model: Maximum standard error +/- 2.2%. Results weighted by gender and age cohort distribution based on ELSTAT Census (2011). Duration: November 19-22, 2022.

Note: Distribution percentages in some questions may not add up to 100% due to rounding of individual response percentages.

* Head of Political and Social Research at Prorata