Market Letter to the Meloni Government – A Glimpse of the Influx of Italy, Comparison with Greece

With a direct warning shot, the markets sent the first message to their new government ItaliaSending 10-year bonds to their highest level in a decade.

The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose to 4.5%, the highest level since 2013, in a sign that markets are worried about what relationships they will be in. The new government in Rome with the Europeans. The concern, based on Italy’s extremely high debt and much more on its unattractive portfolio of service.

According to Trading Economics analysts, Georgia Meloni – as she mentioned at least in her election campaign – intends to renegotiate the terms of funding from the EU. Restructuring the recovery plan is seen as a €200 billion risk, which is vital to Italy’s “fragile” finances.

In combination with the policy of aggressive interest rate increases that the European Central Bank has begun to implement, the pressure on Italy has become even more intense, as a result of which the “scissors” were opened with German 10-year bonds at 235 basis points.

The Italian debt has now reached 280 billion euros, exceeding 150% of GDP, while the fiscal deficit was 9.6% in the year of the pandemic, dropping slightly to 7.2% in 2021.

However, it is not the size of the debt that scares the markets, but its service profile, and herein lies the main difference between them compared to the Greek.

The first component that “screams” is the average ripening time. Italy matures at an average of 7.1 years and that means debt spending has become very urgent.

The average duration for countries that have experienced Mnemonia adventure is 8.2 years, while Greece has the most attractive profile, reaching 20 years.

The second element, which is “combined” with the first, is the expenses that Italy has to spend each year to cover the interest on its debt. Nothing more, nothing less, and it also has the worst “performer” in this indicator, needing 6.8% of its annual revenue.

Greece “burns” about 5.6% of its income to pay interest.

It should be noted that on August 5, Moody’s lowered its forecast for the Italian economy to “negative” …