July 4, 2022

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The French before the dilemma of influencing personality

More than 48 million people will be invited to vote tomorrow to elect 577 representatives to the National Assembly, which is a major event on vacant soil because they have the last word in the parliamentary sphere, however we will have to wait until the second round. , June 19, to find variations in hemicycle composition and personality.

In fact, Reflection Day is not for everyone, as most of the registered voters seem to have decided not to vote, according to opinion polls, which even began abstaining from voting under the Fifth Republic beginning in 1958.

The Odoxa-Backbone poll, released this week by Le Figaro, showed that just 46 percent of voters will turn out in the first round, leaving 46.7 percent in the same phase of the 2017 legislative elections.

Opinion polls indicate a close battle between the ruling party, represented by the Together Coalition, led by the ruling La Repubblica n Marcha, and the left-wing faction Nua Union Popular Ecologist y Social (Knobs), which mobilizes La Francia Insumica. And the ecological parties of Europe are the Greens, the Communists and the Socialists.

According to recent investigations, Together and Nupes will attract 28 percent of the vote, while the far-right National Committee, led by Marine Le Pen, will approach 20 percent and leave conservatism. With a coalition of about 10 people between Republicans and Democrats and the Union of Independents.

However, the best geographical distribution of candidates with the preferences of the ruling party would leave it with a large number of delegates – always taking into account the polls – without guaranteeing an absolute majority of at least 289 seats.

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A presumptive National Assembly of France would have 260 to 310 seats from one seat, 170 to 200 seats from the left-wing NUP, 50 seats from the far right and 40 to 60 seats from the Conservatives.

Three scenes

The definitive victory of La República en Marcha and its allies is the first possible scenario, with recently re-elected President Emmanuel Macron seeking to improve his policies during his second term without major obstacles.

On Thursday, the head of state, during a visit to Dorn’s southern port, urged the French to guarantee full control of the National Assembly.

The President said that a strong and clear majority in the legislature was needed to implement the plan I was defending, accusing his main rivals of being at the pinnacle and not representing a favorable future for the country and the EU.

Another possibility is that the ruling party wins the legislative elections, but without obtaining an absolute majority, a variant, either permanently or individually, will be forced to seek a coalition in government when it is a project of interest to them. Is discussed.

The third scene is Nupes’ victory, which creates an unprecedented situation with anti-government cooperation in recent decades, in which Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of La Francia Insumisa, awaits and demands his appointment as prime minister.

Mélenchon and the environmental, communist and socialist leaders, through this victory of the left, find a way to thwart the social attitudes of the French and the policies of Macron, whom they regard as enemies of the purchasing power.

According to the president, coexistence is more than just a challenge, a headache, a war with unpredictable consequences.

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Car / WMR