Winter postponed: Meteorologists expect a moderate decrease in November from stress from the energy crisis

Europe is preparing for a mild November that will ease pressure on natural gas stocks as supplies shrink ahead of the energy crisis winter.

Long-term forecasts from Maxar Technologies LLC and Marex forecast not show too cold November, providing relief for households concerned about heating costs and for governments, Who want to preserve natural gas reserves after the decline in Russian supply.

When will winter come and which countries will be most affected

In terms of energy demand, a warm start to November would be a welcome sign in light of the current state of global energy. However, the occasional occurrence of cold currents for November and for the 2022-2023 winter season as a whole cannot be ruled out,” Matthew Dross, a meteorologist at Maxar, told Bloomberg.

It is expected to be at the beginning of November Temperatures above normal seasonal levels, while mild weather will continue through the month, according to Maxars Lessons. Other forecasters have suggested a possible return to average temperatures in the second half of November.

German national meteorologist Deutscher Wetterdienst said the country’s now hot weather is set to continue, while the French weather service is also seeing warmer-than-normal temperatures.

In contrast, in the UK, the chances of a colder winter are increasing, although the most likely scenario remains an average winter until January, the UK Met Office said.

Delays in the heating season led to lower natural gas prices

European prices natural gas It has decreased significantly since the August peak, but is still about 80% higher than last year’s levels. Market price hikes have driven up costs to consumers and the industry, with many preparing for unprecedented bills this winter.

On Tuesday, European natural gas prices fell due to delays in the heating season, with benchmark futures down 5.5%.

Autumn in Europe was already unusually warm, with October recording the fewest days since 2000, Dross said. This has helped conserve gas at storage facilities, which are now nearly 95% full across the continent, with Germany’s facilities exceeding the target by nearly 99%.