Elections in Türkiye: How they affect the European Union and the Middle East

The outcome of the elections in Turkey could affect both the European Union and the Middle East.

Less than a month left to happen elections in Türkiye. Especially for him Ok ErdoganThis election battle is very decisive, both for his survival in the presidency and for its historical significance.

The cause of 100 years since the founding of the secular republic of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, where if Erdogan wins, he will have the opportunity to put more of his stamp on the path of a geostrategic weight of 85 million people. The West fears that it will see this moment as its moment to push for an increasingly religiously conservative model, marked by regional conflict, with larger political forces centered around it.

Here are the foreign policy parameters that play into the vote

The elections will greatly affect security in Europe and the Middle East. Who will be elected will determine: Turkey’s role in NATO, its relationship with the United States, the European Union and Russia, migration policy, Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine, and how it deals with tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

Türkiye’s accession negotiations

After the accession negotiations are “frozen”, the opposition appears as the one with the possibility of resuming them. Kilicdaroglu also promised to implement the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights demanding the release of two of Erdogan’s most prominent imprisoned opponents.

Pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party leader Selahattin Demirtas and human rights defender Osman Kavala. Even under the new government, the task of restarting Turkey’s EU membership talks is difficult.

Relations of NATO and the United States with Türkiye

Having initially used its veto power, Turkey eventually gave it the green light Finland’s accession to NATO On March 30th. But the opposition also vowed to move forward and end the Turkish veto in Sweden, saying it would be possible during the alliance’s annual meeting on July 11.

Many analysts argue that a re-elected Erdogan may also feel strong enough to let Sweden in. After all, NATO allies played an important role in earthquake relief. Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin said the door is not closed to Sweden, but insists that Stockholm is responsible for determining how things go.

Turkey’s military relations with the United States soured sharply in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile system, a move the United States said would endanger NATO aircraft flying over Turkey. In response, the United States expelled Ankara from the F-35 fighter jet program and imposed sanctions on the Turkish defense industry.

A meeting in late March between Kilicdaroglu and the US ambassador to Ankara, Jeff Flake, angered Erdogan, who saw it as interference in the elections and vowed to “close the door” to the US envoy. “We have to teach the United States a lesson in this election,” the angry president told voters. Finally, the opposition in its political platform clearly indicates its desire to return to the F-35 program.

Türkiye’s position between Ukraine and Russia

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Türkiye offered itself as a mediator. It continues to supply weapons to Ukraine – most notably Bayraktar drones – while refusing to impose sanctions on Russia. He also brokered a UN agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports to pass through the blockaded Black Sea.

On the occasion of his intense strategic work with Russia, after giving the green light to Finland to join NATO and hinting that Sweden could follow suit, Erdogan is now suggesting that Turkey could be the first NATO member to host Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Syria and immigration

The opposition says that Turkey’s role in Syria depends to a large extent on how it deals with the issue of Syrians living in Turkey. Turkey is home to about 4 million Syrians and many Turks, who are experiencing a major cost-of-living crisis, are becoming increasingly hostile. Kılıçdaroğlu is committed to creating opportunities and conditions for the voluntary return of Syrians.

Erdogan is also trying to establish a rapprochement with Syria, but Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says he will meet with the Turkish president only when Ankara is ready to completely withdraw its army from northern Syria.

Greco-Turkish and Turkish politics in the Mediterranean

Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with Erdogan even warning that a missile could hit Athens. But the immediate reaction of the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and the visit of Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new environment for bilateral relations. Mr. Dendias, along with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, announced that Turkey would vote for Greece in its campaign for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2025-26 period and that Greece would support Turkey’s candidacy for the Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization.

In another sign of improving Greek-Turkish relations, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Panagiotopoulos and Migration Policy Minister Notis Mitratsi visited Turkey this month, with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar saying he hoped the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas would be “a sea of ​​the Mediterranean.” . friendship between the two countries. Akar said he expects a moratorium with Greece for military and air exercises in the Aegean Sea between June 15 and September 15.

Regarding Cyprus, Chavekoz stated that it was important for Athens and Ankara not to interfere in the internal politics of Cyprus and that “the people of the island should be given the opportunity to consider their problems bilaterally”. But analysts say Greece, Cyprus and the eastern Mediterranean are central to Turkey’s foreign policy and not much would change with another government. The difference will be more than a difference in style.