From Alana to … Maracanã

By Apostolos Manthos

After 12 consecutive sessions in which the market took sideways steps to stabilize to its highest levels in the past nine years between a fluctuation range of 1280 and 1254 points, the general index curiously decided, on a pivotal day of great economic and political importance, to cut prices. The lower bound and moving violently towards the first short-term support at 1238 units.

From then on, if the index cannot push strongly above 1238 points in the following sessions, so that it returns again to 1260 points, we should expect the continuation of the current profit-taking trend by investors, which pushes the index inside the support area. Area from 1210 to 1185 units. But this is where things will start to get trickier for potential sellers, as new capital inflows are very likely to be energized as the following narrative will leave no room for slippage.

What is certain, however, is that the bell for the final round before investment grade has already sounded and those who attempt to switch the deck in order to correct prices on the board will likely find themselves suddenly out of the loop as rating agencies can “strike” any time without any notice. Anyway, the country after achieving political stability and clean governance for 4 years has covered all the requirements. In fact, it is heard in the market that the major exchanges have postponed the holidays in the departments of foreign institutions until after August 10th. Are you telling them something to know?

Despite the recent good performance of the Hellenic Stock Exchange, which placed it among the most profitable markets in 2023, it still has a lot to offer. In fact, he is just beginning, being on the first steps of the ascent. What distinguishes it is the comparison of international indices with respect to the general index, where it shows in large letters that the market will have to double in the coming years to be able to cover at least part of the difference that separates it from the general index. European markets. So according to the chart, the general index in the past decade has only achieved +22.25% at the same time as the French CAC 40 index +92.54%, the German DAX 40 index +102.52%, the US Dow Jones Industrial Average +132.17%, and the S&P 500 index + 177% and the technology index despite the collapse of 2022 may “float” + 421%.

The fuel for the general index to recover a large portion of the “debt of the last decade” is right there. From investment grade and public debt reduction to 140% of GDP by 2027 and to 120% of GDP by 2030 all the way to a 70% investment jump by 2027. So while the short-term price graph shows a very good profit- with Taking into account the long-term semi-monthly price chart, the general indicator picture is only for selling is not. The bullish river started from the break-up of 950 units and does not seem to be backing down. In fact, indications coming from most of the slow oscillators are that the uptrend has now turned “blue” after nearly 5,300 days of downtrend. Here lies the first nearby resistance area at 1380 units, where the local high of 2014 and the three-year low of 2009-2011 were established.

Moreover, however, active investors who love short deals, as a high-level institutional investor says, “will not have a handkerchief to cry about” because from the 1200 to 1100 unit scheme we will find ourselves in the Estadio do Maracana in 1380 to … 2,700 units. How and why investors will play such a huge part of the chart remains to be seen in the coming years. However, the first suspicion of a strong upward leverage of the index and at the same time of the market falls on bank stocks, as they will be completely released after the last action to transfer stock packages held by the HFSF. past “links”.

* Apostolos Manthos is responsible for technical analysis and investment strategy