February 27, 2024

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UBS: Exponential growth – a surprise for Greece in 2023

UBS: Exponential growth – a surprise for Greece in 2023

“Sudden growth” of 4.1% is expected for the Greek economy in 2023, according to estimates by Swiss bank UBS.

These estimates result in part from the significant effect of the statistical base (the carryover effect) of the growth rate for 2022 estimated at 1.5%, while the average estimate of economists for international organizations (consensus) It rose to 2.9%.

The Greek economy, which closed 2022 with a growth rate of 5.9%, is expected to post a strong GDP growth rate of 3.2% in 2024 as well, against an average forecast of just 1.9% by the consensus of economists.

Inflation rate at 3.3%

For UBS, lower energy prices and therefore lower subsidies are expected To reverse the great divide which opened between gross value added and gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2022, in favor of growth, while lower prices for fuel, electricity and natural gas;It will also limit average inflation to 3.3%, which is below the average market estimate of 0.8%.

Greece, according to the Swiss Bank, records the largest fiscal adjustment in Europe, Now back to the primary surpluses, With public debt falling to 159% of GDP in 2023 and 151% of GDP in 2024. Meanwhile, while €7.2 billion of foreign direct investment in 2022, a 20-year record, Unemployment is expected to decline to 11.1% in 2023 and to 10% in 2024.