December 5, 2023

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Poll: The undecided votes – can they form a government?

Poll: The undecided votes – can they form a government?

The May 21 election, which will be held under a simple proportional system, leaves no chance of a self-sustaining government in the first round.

The parties have entered the final stages ahead of the May 21 election, while the process of seeking coalitions has intensified after the first Sunday or weeks after the elections to see who can cooperate. An event that requires a second round.

Elections on May 21 using a simple proportional system leave little chance of a self-perpetuating government on the first ballot, so parties with leading question percentages and rankings will form a coalition government.

The answer is not easy because everything depends on the strength of the parties in the first round, the difference between them and the dynamics of the third party – which according to the polls will be PASOK – because it can be the controller. In an attempt to form a coalition government.

The possibilities based on the statements of political leaders did not leave much room for a cooperation government from the first round.

However, it should be pointed out that it is very possible for the first party to cooperate with a third party, but in the end there will be no agreement as the president of PASOK, Nikos Androlakis, has made it clear that he does not agree. Prime Minister Kiriakos Mitsotakis or Alexis Tsipras should cooperate.

Will undecideds rule?

Party workers have thrown their weight into the “reservoir” undecided as they seem to be able to influence the outcome of the election to a greater extent.

In today’s debate – where the leaders of all parliamentary parties sit at the same table – it is not clear how much the parallel monopolies involved by the leaders will affect the final verdict of the electorate. The main objective will be to attract undecided voters.

Obviously, they will try to highlight the differences between the parties on important issues, but their main concern is to bring together the youth and people who oscillate between two or more parties.

What do the polls show?

As recent polls and party officials have acknowledged, the undecided vote can determine the final outcome to a certain extent.

No one knows if they can reverse what we have seen so far, but in any case, they have the power to close or open the “gap” between the first two parties, or give the parties more mobility. To be continued later.

The percentage of undecided votes reached 12% in the latest Pulse poll on behalf of SKAI, while it is of particular interest how their distribution will affect the outcome.

In the voting intention, ND gets 31.5%, followed by SYRIZA 25.5%, PASOK-KINAL 8.5%, KKE 6%, MERA25 with 4%, Hellenic Solution 3%, the percentages change accordingly. Indeterminate distribution.

The first scenario, according to the poll, “places” New Democracy in parliament with 120 seats and PASOK with 34, meaning that a possible cooperation between them would create a government with 154 representatives.

In a second scenario of undecided and seat-sharing, New Democracy enters parliament with 118 seats and PASOK with 35. In the second case there is a mathematical probability of forming a government with a total of 153 seats.

The data on undecideds from Alco’s poll on Alfa’s behalf is of particular interest because it records data on their choice.

Specifically, according to the 1,000 respondents who participated in the survey, 28% would choose according to the party’s program and announcements, 25% would choose according to his ideology, 15% would choose someone not related to corruption, 14% after comparing the ND – SYRIZA governments, 9% the party leader and 4 % Candidate M.P.

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