April 13, 2024

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The “black hole” of the crisis is closing

The “black hole” of the crisis is closing

A painful stock market cycle that has lasted for more than 13 years appears to have come full circle for the stock market, dating back to 2011, closing the “black” period of the crisis.

The market value now reaches 100 billion euros, compared to 50-55 billion euros that fluctuated in 2011. Contrary to the path of capitalization, the stock market, at the general index level, has returned to its levels that were at the beginning in May 2011.

But it should be noted that compared to the beginning of May 2011, there are stocks with high capitalization and good returns. Mytilenos has a yield of 695%, Aegean 612%, Terna Energy 580%, GEC Terna 496%, Jumbo 493% and Sarantis 478%. But there are two other top-performing titles. Quest with a gain of 2,059% and Autohellas with an increase of 1,202%.

Motor oils (+231%), Elvalharcor (+148%), Lambda Development (+97%), PPA (+76%) and OTE (+74%) also registered high gains.

The index comes from a rising wave that lasted for several months, as the market reached 1,105 points since October 9, with gains of 30%, and no significant correction was recorded.

Technically, the general index is trying to create a new base of buyers above the 1400 level to be able to move towards the next resistance area from 1448 to 1460 points, which has been reaching us since the spring of 2011. The market started from an area of ​​480 units in March 2020 and is now hovering at 1420 units, which is higher. level 13 years ago.

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The investment grade recovery played an important role in the return to 2011.

Greece lost its investment grade rating on April 27, 2010, when Standard & Poor's became the first institution to downgrade its rating to “junk.” The general index “wrote” 1,696.68 points on that day, a decline of 6%. Naturally, it was preceded by a continuous decline from the 2,327 points that the market reached in early 2010, with the specter of Greece's bailout plan appearing more clearly, until April 23, in the face of Greece's appeal to the International Monetary Fund.

Some local analysts have identified levels between 1,670 and 1,690 units as a possible target, according to the long-term technical picture of the market, which are the levels the market was at before losing investment grade.

Goldman Sachs gives the 2024 general index a price target of 1,550 units, Eurobank shares give it 1,622 units and NBG Securities gives a level of 1,500 units.

Next bet

The next important bet for the market is its return to developed markets, which was recently estimated by the Prime Minister's economic advisor, Mr. Al. Patelis will be in 2025.

In 2024, AXA could be put under review for a possible upgrade, during the first half of the year, to reclassify to developed markets.

L entrance. The listing of Venizelos on the AX Index was the most significant public listing in the past 15 years, and brought the Greek market closer to its goal of joining the developed markets club.

The successful debut of El. Venizelos at AXA intensified the movement of tokens for their participation in the upcoming large public offering regarding shares of HFSF-owned Piraeus Bank which was scheduled for the beginning of March.

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A return to investment grade and a possible upgrade of the stock exchange to developed market status will provide the necessary “fuel” for increased venture capital inflows.

The Greek stock market has been downgraded by the world's most important rating index, MSCI, with assets of 12 trillion. The dollar followed by major international houses on Wednesday, June 12, 2013.

Source: Monkey – MEB