April 13, 2024

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A great record year also hides pitfalls

A great record year also hides pitfalls

There is no doubt that 2024 will go down in market history, whatever happens in the rest of the year. In addition to the expected cuts in interest rates from the world's major central banks,… Spot ETFs in encryption And presidential elections United States of AmericaThis year has already been marked by great records in the stock market, and not only in… Wall Street But all over the planet.

So what's next for global stocks? The upward trend will continue Paid Against the backdrop of the obsession in the investment world – and beyond – about the potential of genetic AI? Is there a risk of a repeat of the disastrous 2022 when new highs were recorded at the beginning of the year but then the markets collapsed like paper towers due to geopolitical turmoil and the energy crisis?

In the United States, the first record was recorded for Standard & Poor's The 500 came on January 19 when the index reached an all-time high for the first time since the first session of 2022 at 4,839 points, with a previous record high on January 19. 4,796 units. Since then, the records have been pouring in, with the world's leading stock index reaching a total of 13 new all-time highs through 2024. The all-time highs were preceded by the industrials sector. Dow Joneswhile technical Nasdaq He came close to, but did not achieve, his record, which he has held since November 2021.

However, apart from the US market, stocks have their own prices on many other major stock exchanges. Such as Tokyo, where the legendary Nikkei index broke the record it had held for a full 34 years, forcing analysts to talk about a new era for Japanese stocks. In order to succeed Nikki To set a new historic high, for the first time since 1990, it was inevitable Bank of Japan To keep interest rates low, which pushed the yen lower and made the Japanese currency cheaper Origins.

We also have good news for the bulls in… Long-suffering Europe. Despite the recession that lasted for nearly a year in Germany, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange witnessed it Dax To write consecutive historic highs, while moving on the same path of consecutive records as well Kak In the city of light. These two indices also led the European index Stokes 600 To new peaks, while the Athens Stock Exchange in our country continues its continuous upward trajectory.

So, let's see how the atmosphere can deteriorate. The truth is that black swans are unpredictable, so let's turn to what the marbles show analysts. The prevailing belief is that the good mood will continue because the obsession with technology will hardly subside, moreover in the coming months and perhaps from June, interest rate cuts will also begin, and the data will contribute to the good mood. Capital Economics estimates that the “outperformance” of US stocks will continue, which will drag the rest of the developed markets forward.

The lights will keep falling NvidiaWhich has now created its own audience and is considered a unique case, “The wonderful one” As he described it very aptly Market monitoring To distinguish it from the “Great Seven”. In fact, some analysts have gone so far as to say that… Jensen Huang He's a bigger figure than Elon Musk. At the same time send him forecasts of investment houses Standard & Poor's 500 from 5.500 Up to 6,500 units at the end of 2024.

But forecasts are just forecasts, and very often they fall, while we should not forget that rallies end at some point and corrections always follow. Return of inflation, further delay in interest rate cuts since then Nourish it And european central bank, Doubt stagnates on United States of America With the advent of summer and the continuing problems in… Euro-zoneare factors that can worsen the climate.

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Of course, the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is so great that it is difficult to defeat it without erupting some crises, for example. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East could lead to higher oil prices or something unexpected happening with the US elections.