December 3, 2022

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Thrilling with Nord Stream: The Big Bangs are like earthquakes – all scenarios about how pipelines will be punctured

Denmark believes that “deliberate actions” have caused major leaks in Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 that runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and seismologists said powerful explosions preceded the leaks.

European leaders And the experts talked about the mailpotential sabotage Amid the energy crisis with Russia sparked by the war in Ukraine. Although it is filled with natural gas, no pipeline – neither Nord Stream 1 nor Nord Stream 2 – currently supplies Europe.

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«The assessment of the authorities is clear that these are deliberate actions, not accidentsDanish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Tuesday.

He added, however, that “there is no information to suggest who might be behind this.” Frederiksen dismissed the claim that the incident was an attack on Denmark, saying that Leaks Occurred in international waters.

The accident It has cast a shadow over the opening of the long-awaited pipeline to transport Norwegian natural gas to Poland to boost the continent’s energy independence from Moscow.

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When did the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 explosions occur?

The first explosion Recorded early Monday morning It is southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, said Björn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismological Network. a Second, a stronger explosion Northeast of the island same night It was equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 2.3. Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also recorded the eruptions.

“There’s no doubt about it, it’s not an earthquake,” Lund said.

Danish Defense Minister Morten Podeskow travels today to Brussels to discuss the two gas pipeline leaks with NATO President Jens Stoltenberg.

What caused the explosion, all scenarios

Scenarios give and give what exactly caused the explosions in the pipelines in which they appear Steel walls 4.1 cm thick. It is covered with reinforced concrete with a thickness of 11 cm.

According to Danish military analyst Back Nielsen, sabotage “is not technically difficult. It only requires a boat and some divers Who knows how to deal with explosive devices.

If we look at who will practically benefit from the additional turmoil and chaos in the gas market in Europe, I think only one player benefits from more uncertainty, and that is Russia“, He said.

According to the Guardian, British sources said they believed it might not be possible to determine exactly what happened, while another source said so It is unlikely that the explosions were caused by a submarine or other underwater shipbecause it was possible to detect its presence in the relatively shallow waters of the Baltic Sea, where parts of the pipelines lie between 80 and 110 meters.

An alternative scenario – completely hypothetical, as the same sources pointed out – is that Can a ship disguised as a merchant To shed days or weeks before the attack Mines in the area were later detonated by remote control and caused her to explode.

The German government believes that these are targeted attacks against the two pipelines, Tagesspiegel newspaper reported, citing security services, but also based on other evidence. Even Der Spiegel cites someone with inside knowledge of the facts. In short, the DW notes that the signals are possibly referring to Sabotage, an act of sabotage, or even an attack based on chronologyAnd severe pressure loss in Nord Stream 1.

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Based on initial assessments of the situation, “The possibility of a potential attack on the sea floor is not a common occurrence. It is happening Only with special forces, with divers or even a submarine“Informed sources report.

Notably, the Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) on Monday urged oil companies to exercise caution Unidentified drones It was seen flying near the Norwegian offshore platforms Oil and gas, warning of possible attacks, According to the NTB news agency.

Foam in the sea at the site of the explosion

her foreign minister Denmark Jeppe Kofod said Sweden, Germany and Poland have been informed and “we will inform and communicate with Russia in this case.”

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He said that Danish foreign intelligence does not see an increased military threat against Denmark after the three leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.

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Gas leak in Baltic Sea after Nord Stream explosion
Gas leak in Baltic Sea after Nord Stream explosion
Gas leak in Baltic Sea after Nord Stream explosion
Gas leak in Baltic Sea after Nord Stream explosion

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However, leaks in gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea led to the formation of foam on the surface of the water, as shown in photos released by the Danish army. “We can’t say how long the leak will last,” Danish Energy Minister Dan Jorgensen said as the gas has not been shut down and there is no information at the moment when it will shut down.

German pipeline operator Nord Stream AG said it was preparing an investigation to assess the damage.

“At the present time, it is not possible to estimate a timetable for the restoration of the infrastructure for transporting natural gas,” the company said in a statement. “The causes of the accident will become clear after the investigation,” he added.

In Sweden, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said it was “probably sabotage” but not an attack on Sweden.

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Andersen added that neighboring oil-rich Norway “has informed us of the increased activity of drones in the North Sea and the measures it has taken regarding that.”

Foreign Minister Anne Linde said Sweden “does not rule out any scenario and we will not speculate on motive or culprit”.

A major environmental disaster from natural gas leakage

The natural gas leaking into the Baltic Sea consists almost entirely of methane The second largest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Much of the gas would rise through the sea and enter the atmosphere, said David Hastings, a retired oceanographer chemist in Gainesville, Florida. “There is no doubt that the biggest environmental impact of this is on the climate, because Methane is a really powerful greenhouse gas“, He said.

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According to UN data, methane is 82.5 times worse for the climate than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period because it effectively absorbs the sun’s heat.

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The pipeline carrying gas from Denmark to Poland was also inaugurated

Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki described the events as an “act of sabotage”. During a ceremony in northwestern Poland, Morawiecki, Frederiksen and Polish President Andrzej Duda opened a yellow tube valve belonging to the Baltic Pipe, a new system that sends Norwegian natural gas through Denmark to Poland.

“The era of Russian dominance in the natural gas sector is coming to an end,” Morawiecki said. “A period of blackmail, threats and extortion,” he added.

Everything points to the Russian finger

No official provided evidence for the cause of the leaks, but without belief Russia To be large, some feared Moscow would sabotage its infrastructure out of hatred or to warn that pipelines were under attack. The leaks have heightened and led to interest in whether energy infrastructure is being targeted Slight increase in natural gas prices.

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“We can clearly see that this is a business sabotageIt is an act that will likely mean another step in the escalation of the situation we are facing in Ukraine.”

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with Danish Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod about the apparent sabotage, according to US State Department spokesman Ned Price, who underscored the US commitment to strengthening European energy security.

Anders Back Nielsen, a researcher in the Naval Operations Center at the Royal Danish Defense College, said the timing of the leaks was “obvious” at the Baltic Pipe Party. Perhaps someone sought, he said, to “send the message that something might happen with Norwegian gas”.

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