June 13, 2024

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“Turkey may enter a period of great upheaval – Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu: What does the West want, what Greece wants”

“Turkey may enter a period of great upheaval – Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu: What does the West want, what Greece wants”

the elections in Türkiye They are really critical. dullness Recep Tayyip Erdogan so is it Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a crossroads. On Sunday, May 14, a political battle between two different worlds will take place. Not only will the outcome determine the next day within Turkey, it will directly affect Greece – as well as the overall picture in the eastern Mediterranean and of course the relations of our neighbors with the West. What is the use of that for us? A defiant but predictable Erdogan or the uncharted waters that Kilicdaroglu’s arrival will bring?

the Ioannis Valinakis found in his studio newsbest We analyzed the situation in Türkiye and we are in the final stage of the elections. Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu? “It’s like having Bahrain in front of you”says the former deputy foreign minister. “One sea is full of coral reefs and mines and sharks and the other … is unknown. Where will you go; instinctively I would say, you will go to the point where you say ‘I can also do that'”. In the other, everything is given “, he explains. He adds: “We are not under illusions, of course. In either case, Turkey will be a difficult neighbour. What the West will do also plays a role. Will it be better and more effective to contain Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu? I would say Kilicdaroglu who will be part of this West. But it all depends. How do we prepare for the future?.

What is the main difference between the presidential candidates? “It is Erdogan’s Eurasian orientation, or Turkey’s attempt to benefit as much as possible from those around it – from the West, Russia, China and the Middle East, in line with Kilicdaroglu’s preference for a more pro-Western policy. Kilicdaroglu wants Turkey to remain a part of the West, as it has traditionally been over the decades. past, after the Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. Erdogan tried to distance Turkey from this model. The West prefers the model of the Kemalists, that is, Kilicdaroglu, rather than the Erdogan model, which has made it difficult for the West in recent years, with a more independent, transactional, and more extortionate policy. This will continue if he wins,” explains Mr Valinakis.

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Opinion polls in Türkiye should not be treated like any other Western country.says L Podcast Professor of International Relations at the University of Athens. “We are talking about a country with a lot of tyranny. Erdogan controls everything. He won’t let victory slip away so easily. Therefore, all the measurements that are made are an element that we simply have to take into account and no one knows on election night what the true will of the Turkish people is and how that will translate into an election outcome. Between one and the other, there are various quasi-governmental mechanisms, which the Erdogan regime has already put into practice – So we don’t even know if the decision of the Turkish people is what we will see the next day in the official results.

Mr. Valinakis was asked if Erdoğan could have manipulated the outcome. The answer of the former deputy foreign minister was more than clear. “Absolutely. And for the outright falsification of the result in the polls. The conditions in which the two main sides face each other are not equal. One side controls everything. It imprisons whoever it wants. Terrible things are happening in Turkey these days that go unnoticed. They show the direction that Turkey will have With more force after the elections if Erdogan wins “.

The electoral battle is inconclusive and the next day tough – whatever the outcome. “The opponent’s goal is to win in the first round. It is within the bounds of possible, but it is not at all certain that he will succeed. Kilicdaroglu may come close to being self-sufficient, but if they go to the second round, things will be more favorable for Erdogan.. He will have 14 days, between the two electoral contests, to use all the means he can and cannot imagine, including a crisis with a neighboring country. The sudden discovery of a terrorist network or “terrorist” act, which he attributes to the country’s enemies – that is, to the opposition allied with the Kurds. So many things can happen that he will be the winner of the second election. This is his plan, after all».

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Can he also use Greece? “A desperate Erdogan looking for a way to win votes can use the interval between our first and second election contests. The perfect storm can happen. In contrast, Greece will be, especially after May 21, with a transitional government led by a supreme judge who has little to do with external defence. During this time there is an inability to make decisions on the part of Greece… So? What better opportunity for the Turkish president to send a team of commandos to a rocky Greek island one morning than to put Greece in front of a terrible dilemma. In theory, this scenario exists. And he could give points to Erdogan. For that alone he was planning for it».

The professor sees the possibility of major unrest in Türkiye. To be more specific: He added, “If Kilicdaroglu advances by more than 50%, we will try on the part of the Erdogan regime to nullify the opposition’s victory by all means. With people on the streets, with paramilitary forces, with radio stations and channels occupied. It is not easy for Kilicdaroglu to win. If he wins, we will go through a period.” Great internal turmoil in Turkey. I think this can be done the other way around. If Erdogan wins the battle, which is more likely, the opposition will take to the streets and we will have a great competition for a long time. “.

Listen to the interesting analysis of Ioannis Valinakis.

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