February 22, 2024

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Aegean takes off, new PPC in analysts' eyes, OTE wakes up, Motor Oil launches investments, hotel in Porto Heli and big short sell

Aegean takes off, new PPC in analysts' eyes, OTE wakes up, Motor Oil launches investments, hotel in Porto Heli and big short sell

I gave a boost yesterday before Optima Bank In its stock Aegean Airlines By publishing an analysis of the stock. The brokerage restarts coverage by placing the stock in its top picks and giving a buy recommendation with a target price of €14.70. It analyzes the stock against its peers and against its fundamentals. Hers gives a price target of €16.20, but in terms of 2024 EV/EBITDA, peers are at 3.94 times giving a price target of €13.10. So the existence of gravity 50% Each model results in a price that has room to rise 29%.

After the repayment of guarantees and due to free cash flows, Optima Bank analysts expect a dividend for 2023 of 0.46 euros and 0.50 euros for 2024, although they see a decrease in profits in 2024. From 167.6 million euros and for the fiscal year 2023, in 2024 they expect Profits fall to €138.6 million, exceeding €150 million in 2025.

They also point to the maintenance of the new aircraft and stress that if this is done early and becomes more available in the summer, profits could be better, while also pointing to negotiations with the company. Pratt & Whitney Which will also determine the amount of compensation.

It is worth noting that despite the aircraft purchases, upcoming dividends and collateral repayments, Optima Bank expects net borrowing to be approximately the same as EBITDA and slightly lower.

His share OTE In recent meetings, signs of awakening appear. Market executives point out that it is now one of the cheapest telecom companies in Europe. While they recorded an increase abroad, the Greek group did not follow suit. But this distortion will not last long. Let us remember that in the previous months, the stock once again lagged behind the market and analysts attributed this lag to the sector's trajectory in Europe. But now that we've seen an increase there, it's likely to come here as well.

Yesterday it already registered a big movement and seems to want to escape the area at around €13. the European bank shares Which gave the stock a Hold recommendation with a target price of €15.10, and expects earnings of €521.7 million in 2023 and €518.1 million in 2024. In other words, the stock has significant upside.

It was approved, as expected, by its general assembly engine oil Buy the rest 25% Ha winds Now MORE owns 100% of the company. The actor It will raise 123.5 million euros and pave the way for a generous distribution to its shareholders after many years. On the other hand, Motor Oil will consolidate the entire company and improve its finances, but it will also move closer to the goals it has set for the energy transition.

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It has already achieved a lot and has updated its €4 billion investment plan by 2030, which forecasts 2 GW of installed capacity from renewables and €250 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) from €111 million today. In addition, the group has committed to installing 4,000 chargers. In 2030, more than 40% of total EBITDA will come from non-mineral sectors. MORE has an installed capacity of 837 MW, mostly from wind farms, with 2.2 GW in various phases. The stock is in recent meetings between highly capitalized parties and is looking at €26, having also given an interim dividend of €0.40 per share a month ago.

This goal is considered achievable by stock market analysts of purchasing power To gradually increase EBITDA from €1.5 billion in 2023 to €2.3 billion in 2026 and €3 billion in 2030.

Also, as he reported eurox And PantelakisThe company has also secured significant funds to cover the financing gap of 4 billion euros for the three years 2024-2026 resulting from differing financing needs and operational cash flows.

In fact, analysts suggest that capital expenditures for the same three-year period will exceed €9 billion. These costs can be covered by equity, recurring cash flows and borrowing.

This amount of €9 billion is allocated to PPC's investment programme, which aims to increase installed power capacity by 18% year on year, by investing in renewable energy sources, in network development as well as in new activities, such as fiber optic networks. At the same time, it also aims to expand into Southeastern Europe.

Analysts believe that it is important that the company does not rule out issuing new bonds, as it will need to refinance its viable bonds, which expire in 2026 and 2028, respectively.

They also described the possibility of small-scale mergers and acquisitions as interesting, following the acquisition of Enel Romania, should attractive opportunities arise.

A hotel investment worth €150 million is currently being constructed in the Argolis area, specifically in Porto Heli.

This is the hotel Six sensesThe first in the Peloponnese, which will be built on the site of the old hotel Costa Perla. Investors with foreign and Greek capital participate in this investment. What is important is the presence of the Goutos family, which controls the Golden Land Goutos company, which develops important activities in the real estate sector in the wider Ermioni region, where it owns important lands.

The investment company also participates CBI Capital Based in London and Taconic Capital Based in New York.

The project concerns the construction of a five-star hotel with a spa and furnished tourist residences on an area of ​​68 acres in the Koverta area located between Petrothalassa and Ermione.

The project is expected to be implemented by 2026, and upon completion, its capacity will reach 60 rooms and suites, with private swimming pools and gardens.

To a hedge fund Cube Research and Technologies It built a short position worth $1 billion, by shorting major German companies such as Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank. He is betting on weak demand in the global economy, which will lead to a slowdown in the German economy as well. The short selling in Qube occurred as the German stock market's DAX index approached an all-time high with stocks rising ahead of expected interest rate cuts later this year.

the Qube Hedge Fund It had $11 billion in assets under management last year. Short selling of German stocks is also included Rheinmetall And Siemens Energy It accounts for half of all short positions in his portfolio. Many German companies were affected by the energy crisis, the contraction of the German economy, high interest rates, and weak exports to countries outside the European Union. In less than a week, macroeconomic data on the fourth quarter GDP in the euro area is expected to be released, which is expected to show that the economy of the twenty euro countries has entered a state of recession in the final months of 2023.

Later today we await the meeting of its specialized committee European Central Bank Regarding the issue of monetary policy followed. There is no concern about a possible change in the main reference prices. As we read yesterday in Reuters, the markets offer the potential for more than that 90% To keep interest rates at their current levels, which are the highest in many years.

But what's worrying markets is what they'll hear from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and other senior officials about when interest rate cuts will begin – something investors desperately want.

What they fear is that interest rates will remain at their current levels for several more months, which will certainly not excite stock markets and companies that borrow at high interest rates. This fear is not unjustified, as the European Central Bank's reluctance to announce a successful end to the war against inflation is well known. In minutes The previous hearing cited officials' concerns that wage increases are still large and there are very few signs of slowing.

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the Francisco GuerreraA Reuters columnist says we will hear something similar from President Lagarde after the announcement of keeping interest rates at the same level. But Guerrera disagrees with this approach. From his point of view, the European Central Bank’s insistence on the issue of raising wages, which, in his view at least, leads to fueling inflation and makes it difficult to fight it, is a battle against an enemy that is almost non-existent. In fact, Guerrera says the ECB is fighting “an imaginary upward spiral in wages”, perhaps reminiscent of Don Quixote.

Guerrera believes that this logic is wrong, simply because wage increases in the eurozone in the past two years have been clearly lower than the increase in inflation over the same period, citing data collected – through the job search site Indeed – and processed by the Ministry of Labor. . Analysts Tου Urgent views.

According to these figures, the inflation rate in 2022-2023 increased by 7% On an annual basis while wages only 4.3%. If we look a little deeper, we will see that the wage growth rate was 4.8% at the end of 2022 and 3.8% at the end of 2023, which means that it is on a downward path and not far from the 3% that the world achieved. ECB sets highest level of wage growth in line with 2% target For inflation. So Guerrera believes Christine Lagarde and her colleagues are wrong if they really believe that wage increases are fueling inflation.

His own view is that they are unduly worried, while he points out that they should be happy to see large multinational companies such as IKEAthe Total energies And the Uber To increase the wages of its workers, the German and Dutch governments also raised the level of the minimum wage. Guerrera estimates that these increases will not only make the fight against inflation more difficult, but will also lead to an increase in consumer spending, thus boosting the eurozone's anemic economic growth in this period.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only. This may in no way be considered an offer, advice or solicitation to buy or sell the products mentioned. Although the information contained is based on sources believed to be reliable, there is no guarantee that it is complete or accurate and it should not be relied upon as such.