Election 2023: Analysis of last 8 polls

With strong polling winds in the “blue” sails and reasonable expectations among civil servants, the decision predicting the formation of an independent government is still days away from the official announcement of the result. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced the call for elections on Palm Sunday, April 9.

Election fever prevails in all the party headquarters as polling ends day by day, project proposals are prepared, advertisements are prepared, political leaders’ tours, executives’ outings are planned and evaluated. The result of the people’s verdict.

According to the election timetable drawn up by Maximos’ close palace staff, parliament will function with its current structure until the middle of next week, at the end of which Kyriakos Mitsotakis will go to the presidential palace and propose Katerina Sakellaropoulou. As provided in Article 41 of the Constitution, Parliament is dissolved to “renew the mandate of the people”. Even as Prime Minister He did not share his thoughts with his wider associates Based on how he plans to announce the schedule leading up to the elections, from preparatory moves and signals emitted by his narrow core of entourage, the versions currently under consideration are three:

■ First Desires that notice of election appeal be published in a solemn meeting of the Council of Ministers.

■ Second Provides for announcements made during meetings with the President.

■ According to the third edition, an iconic venue is being sought where the Prime Minister addresses the citizens. According to his favorite tactics, rumors that they wanted him to choose some… mountain have not been confirmed, however, he is expected to be in Metzovo, although he will provide for the requirements of the interview these days.

The meeting of the Council of Ministers, which was scheduled to take place on Tuesday, February 28, and was expected to approve the new increase in the minimum wage effective April 1, has been postponed to Friday, March 3, according to new information. . The day after the meeting was Kiriakos Mitsotakis’s birthday He turns 55 on Saturday Also, according to some sources, he has received suggestions to link the event with the announcement of his results.

In any case, as pointed out by those close to the Prime Minister, the formality to be chosen to finalize the results, “the only certainty is that we have entered the first ballot box in the last four days. It bodes well for a two-phase election war”. They explain that because of the simple proportional vote SYRIZA voted for, the April 9 referendum will not deliver a sustainable government solution, and a repeat ballot will therefore have to be held. May 14, where the seat sharing will be done with the advanced proportional system voted by the current government.

A comfortable lead NW

Confidence in the government, one after the other, all public opinion polls showing the ruling party has a comfortable lead, hovering around 6.5 points on average in simple vote intention. Under this condition, in fact, the analysis of the behavior of those who declared themselves undecided shows that their preferences are similar to those who express a clear intention, greater than the difference recorded in the “blue” front. Previous election of 2019 and 8.35%.

More broadly, according to an average survey conducted by eight different polling companies of all shades last month, New Democracy gathered 30.9% percentage, SYRIZA 24.4%, PASOK 10.4%, KKE 5.3%. , the five parties receiving tickets for the next parliamentary system were completed by the Hellenic Solution with 3.7%.

MeRA 25 seems to be moving below the 3% threshold, collecting an average of 2.8% of the vote, as does Hellenes, a formation for the homeland of former member of Golden Dawn Ilias Kasidiaris, who collects 2.6%, but based on the recent law to ban parties linked to his criminal organizations from participating in the electoral process. to be decided by a full bench of the Court. The rest of the parties approach 4.5%, while the “undecided vote”, which includes invalids, blanks and those who declare they have not decided what they will vote for, reaches 15.4%.

reductions

However, by reducing the polls’ findings to final percentages, the New Democracy’s strength on the first ballot varies between 34.7% (calculated by Ross data) and 38.1% (which yields GPO findings). Accordingly, SYRIZA could win between 27.6% (Metron Analysis) and 30.8% (ProRata), PASOK between 10.7% (ProRata) and 15.7% (Rass), KKE between 5.3% (ProRata) and 7.3% (GPO). And the Greek solution is between 3.7% (Ross) and 5.2% (MRB). MeRA 25 exceeds the threshold of parliamentary representation in six out of eight measurements (Pulse and GPO leave it out), while the “Casidiary Party” exceeds 3% – always with reductions in total – in four out of eight polls (Mark, Ross, Metron Analysis and Alco).

A bar of confidence

From the processing of the findings made on behalf of “THEMA” by a special election analyst who calculated the strength of the parties with a proportional distribution of undecided votes, the following conclusions are drawn:

First of all, there is no possibility of forming a government without the cooperation of the first party in the first referendum, because the sum of SYRIZA, PASOK and MERA 25 seats does not exceed the threshold of 151 representatives. It is called a “vote of confidence in the government of the losers from Parliament”. This could only happen with the participation of the KKE, but Perissos has loudly declared his opposition to such a possibility.

Secondly, in repeated polls, as the composition of the new parliament is five parties, the margin of autonomy for the first party is kept close to 37%. With the new electoral law, a graduation bonus in favor of the first party will be available across the country when it exceeds 25%, a key measure of independence is the percentage collected by parties leaving parliament. In this light, things get tougher every time a party crosses the 3% threshold. In a six-party parliament, the bar for autonomy to form an autonomous government is calculated to rise above 38% and with the theoretical possibility of a seven-party parliament, it rises to 39%. Up to 40%.

Thirdly, the “key” under current conditions to achieve self-confidence is for Yanis Varoufakis’s party to enter the next parliament or hover around the 3% threshold. Although the findings of most opinion polls show the tendency of representatives to exceed the electoral threshold, according to analysts, it is difficult to predict the exact result as of now, because, on the one hand, the data analyzed is worried about polling metrics and on the other hand, it is certain that all minor parties will come under strong pressure due to the now-increasing personality dilemma. considered.

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