June 23, 2024

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Shocking Twists | Capital

Shocking Twists |  Capital

By Kostas Stupas

Shocking twists

Election contests do not hide some twists and turns, which are initially surprising, but after a few hours they feel familiar and expected even before the election.

2023 parliamentary elections e.g. A surprise was Syriza’s collapse below the polls’ desired 30% and the strengthening ND percentage. Above the 2019 rate.

Rarely is a ruling party free from power corruption. Even more rarely, the official opposition falls to another party “without bloodshed,” as PASOK did to the Center Union in the late 70s.

What surprises could be in store for Greece and Europe that could overturn the poll average for tomorrow’s European elections?

What consequences, then, might these upheavals have?

A negative surprise for NT could be its inability to capture 30%. It got about 33% in the last European elections and about 41% in the last parliamentary election. Anything above 33% would be considered positive, given the decline in power and the loosening of the vote. A percentage between 30-33% is rated as neutral and below 30% as negative.

For SYRIZA, a percentage of 17% would be considered a victory in the last parliamentary elections, with the percentage of the New Left, which would be higher than the percentage of the last elections. Mr. With the inauguration of Kassalakis to the leadership, SYRIZA is changing its identity, abandoning the old left signs and approaching the political lightness of social networks and awakening culture.

If Syriza gets more than 20% percentage, Mr. Kassalakis is consolidated and, under certain conditions, his party can go on a path to claim power.

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Mr. Political breakthroughs in the center-left are expected even in the summer if Kassalakis’s party cannot take second place.

SYRIZA above 20% or PASOK below 10% will start growth in PASOK.

It would be surprising if any party other than ND-SYRIZA-PASOK wins the top three. If this happens, it is likely to happen through KK or Hellenic Solution. If this happens from KK, Syriza will be forced to moderate its opening towards the centre. If walking from l. The solution to stress is about new democracy.

E.g. NT Get less than 30% and L. Getting above 10% or being a third party would put pressure on New Democracy to redefine its strategy for the remainder of the four-year term.

In Europe

Rise in Europe will recommend placing a new party in one of the top three positions held by the European People’s Party, the Social Democrats and the Liberals. If this happens, it will most likely be from ECR led by Georgia Maloney. Marine Le Pen’s party, which is expected to gain significant strength in France, appears to be closing in on this faction. The reality is that the ECR has moved to the center-right in recent years.

There will be an upheaval in Europe if the next president of the Commission is not supported by a coalition of the centre-right, centrists and centre-left. If e.g. Right-wing and center-right parties are able to form stable majorities, and many upheavals are expected on immigration, energy transition, etc.

This will have significant consequences for regional countries such as Greece, which depend for its national security and investments on European capital flows and policies.

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So, a little holiday on Sunday…