May 6, 2024

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Erdogan's last term: After the “Sultan” who?

Erdogan's last term: After the “Sultan” who?

The information had reached Western embassies before Erdogan announced that this was his last term, after more than 20 years in power as president and prime minister of Turkey.

After all, the constitutional framework prohibits a new term for the Turkish president. Although in our neighboring country, nothing is insurmountable, not even the constitution. But his decision to announce this publicly two weeks before the municipal elections was surprising, and indeed in the context of the Turkish Youth Foundation's event.

But why did Erdogan take this step now? Did he want to emotionally mobilize his voters who had been voting for him consistently in recent years? Opinion polls show that Imamoglu is leading in Istanbul in the 31 electionsHa March; Does he want to appoint his successor to anticipate Imamoglu’s possible rise to the presidency in 2028?

So the scenarios for who will succeed him have already begun. The first information stated that the President of the Turkish National Assembly, Kurtumlis, would succeed him.

Erdogan would like to hand over leadership to his son Necmettin Bilal, who, although he has never held any government position, has constant access to government meetings, has a say in every type of financial transaction and accompanies his father on official visits abroad. Erdogan also has another son who lives and works in the United States.

The name of former Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has also been discussed in the past. But now that he is out of the frame, the discussion revolves around the name of Hakan Fidan, who as a former head of the intelligence service knows faces and things about his political opponents. Of course, let's not underestimate MIT's current leader, Ibrahim Kalin, who is respected in Washington.

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But let us keep in mind that Erdogan’s reference to “recent participation in elections” was repeated before the parliamentary elections in 2009, before the ruling Justice and Development Party conference in 2012, and before the dual presidential and parliamentary elections in 2023.

Because there is also a clause in the constitution that states that if the Turkish Parliament decides to call early parliamentary elections, presidential elections must also be held in which there will be no obstacle to the nomination of the incumbent president. With Erdogan, you never know.